#Nile Crisis in #Cairo Thanks to Renaissance Dam

The Nile in Aswan

Whether the Muslim brotherhood likes it or not , the current Nile crisis with Ethiopia is the biggest challenge facing President Mohamed Morsi, the biggest for real. This is the Nile Challenge.
It is now his true capabilities as a President are being tested. This is not Gaza where Hamas, the MB branch in Palestine is , this is Egypt’s national security and future we are speaking about.
For those who do not know what I am speaking , today in a provoking move the Ethiopian government diverted the course of the Blue Nile preparing for a new stage in building the Grand renaissance Dam.It is provoking because the diversion of the Blue Nile was supposed to take place after the trilateral commission’s report in September 2013.
The trilateral commission is made of experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia as well foreign experts who are studying the effects of the dam on the downstream countries “Egypt and Sudan. The commission’s report was already going to be issued by the end of this month. The last meeting in Cairo , this month. Update : On Wednesday the report will be issued and the Egyptian presidency will declare its position accordingly. Leaks in the report say that Ethiopia did not fully cooperate with the commission and withheld information about the dam.
According to this report we will know if the dam is truly a threat to Egypt and Sudan. If it is a threat , there will be supposedly negotiations and so. After all this is an international river.
The diversion of the Blue Nile was supposed to take place in September 2013 if the dam  gets an ok after the Nile flood.
I believe Ethiopia did this move to twist Egypt’s arm like we say in Arabic , to make us face the reality seizing the opportunity of Egypt’s internal woes and weaknesses as well. I can not blame them , I will blame the current Egyptian administration starting with the President , his aides, his advisers , the intelligence and the ministry of foreign affairs.

The high dam in Aswan

The Mubarak administration as well Omar Suleiman had gone with the wind , they are from the past now. All those months some had to pay attentions to our Upstream neighbors especially Ethiopia. Yes Morsi was the first President to visit Ethiopia but as I see that there is no big impact for his visit now.
China is sponsoring this dam and yet this was not raised in the Egyptian Chinese talks during President Morsi’s visit !! The Turks and Iranians got investments in Ethiopia , we can use them. For God sake Mubarak used the Arab Gulf relations in his fight with Ethiopia over the dams.
I do not need to tell you that many Egyptians believe that the military choice is the best one but I am afraid that the military choice is not an option whether from diplomatic view or technical view. Diplomatically you will start a war in hard times. Yes technically we can not afford air strikes to go to the heart of Ethiopia except with the help of neighbors and I do not think that neighbor countries will be welcoming to join us in war !!
I think EGYPT can pull some cards for its once sake but it seems these cards do not appear except for the Muslim brotherhood branches in other countries !! I am sorry to say that. By the way I hope the Muslim brotherhood supporters stop saying “Hey you and other speakers as well the the opposition , what will you do or what are you going to do !?”
I am sorry but I am not the President for God sake. The President and his administration are in trouble. Already the Egyptian ambassador in Ethiopia said that Morsi was informed by the decision to divert the Blue Nile course 12 hours prior his return to Egypt while the Presidency's spokesperson is denying this and belittling the whole matter.
People are praising the Sudanese official reaction from expression rejection and anger as well heading to the Arab League. Of course I wonder what the Arab League will do !!
Of course now all the night talk shows got nothing to speak about it except the Nile crisis and the Renaissance dam.
Now some will say why Egyptians are so angry and do not want this dam to exist at all. Well it has nothing to do with , well I would like to share with you this online study “unfortunately in Arabic” about the dam. This report details the pros and cons of the dam, there are 6 pros fro 9 cons.
I will focus here on the cons :

1. Extreme high cost of building this dam
2. Forest land and irrigated land “extreme rare in Blue Nile” will be dumped and drowned in the dam’s

   

   An illustration for the Renaissance dam

   lake , no other land available for irrigation in nearby area.
3. Mining areas with minerals like Gold and iron as well quarries will be drowned.
4. Nearly 30,000 Ethiopians will be forced to be displaced.
5. The dam’s age is short “between 25-50 years” due to sedimentation that will affect its efficiency.
6. There is high chance that the dam can collapse due to geological factors and the high speed of water current in the Blue Nile , if it collapses  , this may create a tsunami that can drown Sudanese villages and towns.
7. High chances for earthquakes.
8. Egypt and Sudan will lose lots and lots of water share starting from the first year, in fact the first year of operating this dam we will lose huge quantity of water.
9. Political tensions with Egypt and Ethiopia.  

I was planning to write something different tonight ,but important things should not be ignored.
Ironically it comes at the same time the Muslim brotherhood is preparing huge celebration for his first anniversary as a President.